As we line up for the 94th Academy awards, we can wonder: Is this the weakest year on record? Due to Covid and distributors holding back, this year’s line-up is a bit weak and there’s some questionable choices by the Academy, but there are still memorable performances in amongst the rough. Here are my predictions for many of the leading award categories:
Best Original Screenplay
There are some great scripts here: Don’t Look Up had the world talking; The Worst Person in the World was clever and King Richard dripped with saccharine. It seems this has tightened into a race in two: Licorice Pizza, written by Paul Thomas Anderson is a cute movie but it lacked the depth of the others. Belfast was Kenneth Branagh’s tribute to Ireland, his family and Kenneth Branagh. I prefer Belfast, but think it will go to Licorice Pizza, as the Academy tries to relate to Gen Zed – It’s about as convincing as your grandpa trying to rap.
Best Adapted Screenplay
It is hard to comment on this category without having read the novels on which they’re based. Dune is long and complex, many have tried and failed before succeeding. Drive My Car took a short story and took it to new places. The Power of the Dog by Jane Campion was originally favoured to win this category, which considering the massive plot holes and character shifts I found amazing. However, sanity has prevailed and CODA is now hot favourite to win. Considering it is far better written, has sub-plots, quirky, loveable characters and lots of emotion, this is more your typical Oscar script.
Visual Effects
Finally, No Time To Die, a Bond film, gained a nomination. As did Spider-Man: No Way Home, which was amazing. But it will be the big budget Dune which will this category.
Cinematography
Greig Fraser (Dune), Dan Lausten (Nightmare Alley), Ari Wenger (The Power of the Dog), Bruno Delbonnel (Tragedy of Macbeth), Januz Kaminski (West Side Story).
There are some beauties here and the winner will be Dune. I find this surprising when it also is going to win special effects awards. I guess at three hours long, it had enough footage to win both categories. West Side Story has a great opening sequence, but is pretty standard from then on. To be honest, I couldn’t fault any of the other films chosen and won’t have any qualms about the winner: Dune.
Music (Original Song)
It has to be Billie Eilish and brother Finneas O’Connell for their Bond theme. And it will be…
Best International Feature Film
The producers of Flee were happy to be nominated in three different categories, but look like walking away empty. The standout in this category (and the only international film nominated in the Best Film category) is the Japanese entry: Drive My Car. As much as I enjoyed The Worst Person in the World, Drive My Car is an outstanding film: moody, evocative and restrained, it’s a well written, nicely shot, look at love and grief. A well deserved winner.
Best documentary
I may have only seen two of the nominees but they are the frontrunners: Flee – the animated story of an Afghan refugee – was favoured early, but The Summer of Soul – (Or when the revolution could not be televised) is now favoured – and I could not be happier. This is an amazing documentary highlighting a festival of blues, gospel and soul over three weekends featuring amazing performers such as BB King, Steve Wonder, Gladys Knight and the Pips, Nina Simone and many other legends. It was forgotten by history and will be celebrated with a boogie in its heart here.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Jesse Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Judi Dench (Belfast), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) and Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard).
Anita is a real scene stealer in West Side Story and Ariana DeBose will steal this statuette too. She is great in her role and really stands out in this quality field. I thought Dame Judi and Kirsten Dunst didn’t really need to stretch their legs much and Ellis was fine but not as brilliant as DeBose.
Best Actress in a Lead Role
Jessica Chastain (Eyes of Tammy Faye), Olivia Coleman (The Lost Daughter), Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), Kirsten Stewart (Spencer)
There has been some real market movers here. OurNicole was the early favourite to win this award for her role as Lucy, but she has won this award before, and doesn’t really deserve to go down in history as a dual winner. Olivia Coleman does, but not just yet, and Penelope Cruz has delivered many better roles. Kristen Stewart is apparently wonderful as Diana and she’ll be grateful for the nomination, which will give her some credibility after the Twilight films. I still don’t know why Emilia Jones from CODA is missing, and Rachel Zegler from West Side couldn’t even get an invite… but it will be the eyes of Jessica Chastain lighting up when her name is read out. She has firmed into strong favouritism and should win.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Ciaran Hinds (Belfast), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), JK Simmons (Being the Ricardos), Kodi Smit McPhee (The Power of the Dog).
Aussie Kodi Smit McPhee is in the running after his sharp performance in The Power of the Dog. Jesse Plemons is rated higher, despite being quite mediocre. Ciaran Hinds was grand in Belfast and JK is a previous winner. That leaves Troy Kotsur, who was extraordinary as the deaf father in CODA. I hope his speech is as colourful as some of those in the film. Believe me, you don’t need an interpreter to understand him. He was brilliant.
Best Actor in a Lead Role
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick …Boom!), Will Smith (King Richard), Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
One you eliminate previous winners (haven’t you realised this is how half the awards are chosen?) it’s a field of two: Andrew Garfield and Will Smith. Tick, Tick… Boom! has been very underrated as has Garfield. Will Smith is pretty spot on in his depiction of Richard Williams (not the English King Richard) which was a very average film. Smith carries the film and will carry the statue, even though he is far from the best here.
Best Director
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Stephen Spielberg (West Side Story) .
Jane Campion is a lock in this category. The Power of the Dog was beautifully shot, well cast and acted. This is her second nomination after The Piano and she will win. All the other directors worked with unknown talent and also featured beautiful cinematography and had better scripts – apart from Licorice Pizza. It was ordinary and Anderson shouldn’t be here (neither should Spielberg but he’s considered royalty) and many others such as Maggie Gyllenhaal and Sian Heder (CODA) should. It’s obviously not about recognising women; it’s about recognising the best ones.
Best Film
Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power Of The Dog, West Side Story.
This year’s field is like last year’s Melbourne Cup: not many internationals, lots of very average competitors and very few standouts. And a female (director) will be the winner.
Belfast was as much about Kenneth as The Troubles and even his gambling, alcoholic father looked sharp. Licorice Pizza was another sweet coming of age story for Gen Zed and had as much edge as a pizza. It still didn’t quite match the saccharine topped honey waffle that was King Richard, which was only a grade above a midday movie, and not worthy of being here. West Side Story was as good as the original, has a more culturally sensitive cast, yet the lead actress wasn’t invited to the show. (It’s important to be symbolic; that way you don’t have to actually make a real change.) And you don’t reward remakes; it tells the world Hollywood is unoriginal and out of ideas, and truth doesn’t go down well in Wonderland.
Don’t Look Up had an important message and nothing else. Dune had everyone thinking: “Great set-up; can’t wait for the next chapter.” Why this was nominated will also be lost in the sands of time.
Nightmare Alley was well shot, has a strong cast and is great film noir. Drive My Car has some lovely dialogue, interesting storylines and that Japanese reserve. It was my standout until I saw CODA: an original take on the usual family coming-of-age drama set around a deaf family. It draws tears, laughs and lots of emotion from these flawed and loveable characters. It’s the type of film that usually wins this award and has been tightening recently.
Will the Academy try to make up for ignoring Brokeback Mountain and reward The Power of the Dog? It is well shot and has excellent acting from a top class cast. I found the script had too many plot holes and unlikeable characters, and this film has divided audiences. Nothing wrong with that – this is what art does. It has won awards in important lead-ups and is the favourite.
But I’ll be cheering for CODA. It’s the type of film that usually wins Academy Awards and has stayed with me for the emotions it drew, not the discomfort it put me through. And many will disagree… and ought to. That’s what debating art is about.
